After sharp bounce, market may take a ‘breather’ on lingering election uncertainty, virus outbreak

first_imgThere are a few economic reports in the week ahead, including consumer price index inflation data Thursday and the producer price index Friday. The earnings season is beginning to slow down, but there are still dozens of reports, including from McDonald’s on Monday and Walt Disney, Applied Materials and Cisco on Thursday.“I think next week is just setting up to be a breather. There’s still a lot to figure out here,” said Grohowski. “The equity market’s reaction has been I think understandable and probably better than many might have expected.”Grohowski said there may be uncertainty for awhile. “What I’m thinking about is the Senate races. Part of the market reaction has been relying on this divided government.” After the votes are all in or recounted, “a sweep is unlikely but possible.”“I think the longer this stays uncertain and messy, the more the post-election bounce comes into question,” he said.Different than 2000It would not be unusual for the stock market to sell off before rallying into year end, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Stovall does not expect the type of turbulence there was in 2000, when former Vice President Al Gore lost to George W. Bush in a tight race that ultimately went to the Supreme Court.“In 2000, they were not expecting hanging chads. But they do expect a contested election this time. I think in many ways the market anticipated this,” said Stovall.But the market, after its election week surge, could pull back. “Historically, the market goes down in the month of November, after a Democratic victory,” said Stovall. Since World War II, Democrats won the White House nine times, and the market fell an average of 0.5% in November in those years, compared to the average gain for all Novembers of 1.4%, he said.After those Democratic victories, stocks then rose 1.9% in December on average, more than the normal 1.5% gain for all Decembers.Strategists said they currently do not expect the kind of lockdowns that states ordered when the pandemic started to spread in March. But there could still be some impact that could be negative for stocks.Grohowski said he sees some signs of optimism for the market. Strong data, like third quarter GDP, October’s drop in unemployment to 6.9%, and the better-than-expected earnings are all positives for the market. Another is that investors are so skeptical.“What does still exist is a great deal of dry powder. There’s $4.3 trillion in money markets alone,” he said. “I can tell you, being in touch with investors of all shapes and sizes this week, there’s still a lot of skepticism. From a contrarian view, high cash and a lot of skepticism is a contrarian indicator.”Week ahead calendarMonday Earnings: McDonald’s, SoftBank, Beyond Meat, Simon Property Group, Ambac Financial, Tilray, ZoomInfo, Occidental Petroleum, Myriad Genetics, Taubman Centers, International Flavors and Fragrances, Norwegian Cruise, Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis, Party City 1:30 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey Tuesday Earnings: Lyft, Advance Auto Parts, Adidas, D.R. Horton, Rockwell Automation, CyberArk Software, Hain Celestial, Rackspace, Ashland, Rocket Cos 6:00 a.m. NFIB small business survey10:00 a.m. JOLTS10:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren WednesdayVeterans DayBond market closed, stocks market open regular trading hours Earnings: Air Products, DouYu, Lemonade, Reynolds Consumer, Vroom, Fossil Thursday Earnings: Walt Disney, Palantir Technologies, Applied Materials, Beazer Homes, Cisco Systems, Siemens, Burberry, Brookfield Asset Management, Unity Software8:30 a.m. Jobless claims8:30 a.m. CPI1:00 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans2:00 p.m. Federal budget2:00 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams Friday Earnings: Manchester United, Draftkings, Vipshop 7:00 a.m. New York Fed’s Williams8:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard8:30 a.m. PPI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment – Advertisement – The S&P 500 was up more than 7% in the past week, and the Nasdaq rose nearly 9%. Technology, communications services, health care and discretionary stocks led the rally, after it appeared Democrat Joe Biden could be the next president but with a split Congress.The election was still unresolved heading into the weekend, but even if Biden is declared winner, close votes and lawsuits are likely to result in recounts. The Senate appeared to be in Republican hands, but the margin of control is likely to be tight, and runoff elections are required for two Senate seats in Georgia in early January.“I think the uncertainty is going to catch up the market on a short-term basis,” said Leo Grohowski, BNY Mellon’s Wealth Management chief investment officer. “Perhaps next week could be a drifting lower kind of week.”- Advertisement – Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images At the same time, there has been a surge in daily new coronavirus cases to more than 122,000. Economists are concerned that the economic recovery could suffer as some states could restrict activities and consumers may pull back heading into the important holiday season.The Fed, in its post-meeting statement Thursday, repeated that the course of the virus could help determine the path of the economy.- Advertisement – Ahead of the election, the market had been betting on a “blue wave,” where Biden would take the White House and Democrats would get control of the Senate, giving them total control of Congress. But when it appeared the Senate would stay in Republican hands, stocks surged on the idea of gridlock, which would keep Biden from implementing tax increases and lots of new regulations. After an initially exuberant election reaction, stocks may trade more cautiously in the week ahead, as investors watch election developments unfold and track the course of the coronavirus. – Advertisement –last_img read more

Practice remains normal for men’s basketball team

first_imgBRYAN FAUST/Herald photoIt’s been a long time coming, but the men’s basketball team is finally amid an eight-day break.It is their longest such lay-off since getting 13 days to rest between Dec. 15 and Dec. 28.Given more days between games to work with, UW head coach Bo Ryan is sticking to his normal practice schemes.”We always go over situations whether it’s a longer time period [or not],” Ryan said. “I mean we will go over [being] down two, up two, side-out, end-line out, full-court out. We do situations we might get in some more of during this time.”The things we want to be good at are the same things that you want to be good at in October as well as in February and March because the game won’t change during that time period,” Ryan added. “So we’ve always done that whether we’ve had a long break or not.”Along with the normal fundamentals, coach Ryan likes to hone in on simulated game-situations and study the film of the opposition as much as possible, still keeping in mind that when the game comes the opposition can mix up their game plan.”[Simulated drills are] something we’ve done in the past to reinforce what we do when we don’t have any timeouts [or] we have two timeouts because when you’re playing a game against a team that has shown one tendency, always make sure you mix in something else in case they change,” Ryan said.While practice may make perfect, coach Ryan and his players would rather be playing, especially since they are in the midst of a three-game winning streak.”Well, you always like to play. You always like to compete,” Ryan said. “It’s better.”The Badgers have been off since beating Ohio State last Wednesday at the Kohl Center. The win helped propel the Badgers into a three-way tie for second place in the Big Ten, only a half game behind Iowa with four games remaining.With the break, there may be concerns as to whether these Badgers can continue the run that they’re on and play at the level they were competing at before this eight-day stretch. Ryan felt that to these concerns, there was no answer.”There’s been teams that have played well after a break and teams that couldn’t get their timing after a break, so I don’t think there’s one answer.”Even during the struggles of just a few weeks ago when they were playing regularly, losing three in a row and five of six, the Badgers continued to put each preceding game behind them and prepared for the next one.And while Ryan said that the media has been in a hubbub over the academic ineligibilities that have plagued the Badgers to start 2006 and the recent success that Ryan has had in overcoming these setbacks, he believes that his players are students of the game and they are the ones that make teachers better.”You’re always trying to get better at what you do,” Ryan said. “You just hope that you have players that are grasping your concepts and that their basketball IQ is improving. It’s still about what the players are doing. I know a lot of coaches that could X and O you to death, but still, what difference does that make if your players aren’t picking up on what it is that you’re … that’s important to the game. They have to execute it and get it done between the lines.Added Ryan: “In basketball, again, it’s about the players — what are they picking up, what are they willing to do when they get on the court, how hard are they willing to play [and] how smart are they willing to play.”last_img read more